Ukrainian Hryvnia in Freefall: Dollar Could Hit 45 UAH.

03.05.2026 668

03.05.2026 668

Hryvnia falls, dollar to 45

Currency Market Turmoil in Ukraine

According to TSN.ua: The Ukrainian hryvnia is losing value rapidly, while the U.S. dollar and euro continue to strengthen. Economists point to several drivers behind this trend, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, delayed financial support from the European Union, and a failed parliamentary vote in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada. These factors have placed additional strain on an already fragile economy.

A key blow came when Hungary and Slovakia vetoed a 90 billion euro EU aid package, freezing much-needed funds. This has complicated Ukraine’s economic outlook, as the 50 billion euro Ukraine Facility program depends on passing tax reforms. As a result, the dollar exchange rate could climb to 45 UAH, with the average cash selling price approaching that level. Meanwhile, the euro is expected to trade at 51.75–52 UAH.

Expert Forecasts

Economic analysts say the National Bank of Ukraine is deliberately weakening the hryvnia.

Andriy Shevchyshyn notes that this strategy aims to preemptively mitigate negative fallout.

Oleh Pendzyn predicts that the cash selling rate could exceed 45 UAH per dollar by March or early April. Andriy Zablovsky points out that the 44 UAH per dollar barrier has already been breached, adding that the Middle East war acted as a 'black swan' event, forcing the central bank to accelerate the hryvnia’s depreciation.

In short, Ukraine’s currency market remains under severe pressure, with forecasts suggesting further increases in both the dollar and euro exchange rates. Experts stress the urgent need for measures to stabilize the hryvnia and address the mounting challenges facing the Ukrainian economy. Amid global economic uncertainty and domestic hurdles, it is critical for Ukrainian authorities to adapt their policies to ensure financial stability and support the population.